Election Reshapes Political Landscape on Capitol Hill
Many challenges await new majority.

One week after the election, this headline is self-evident to all. When the 110th Congress convenes in January 2007, Democrats will take control of the House and Senate. There will be 10 new senators, including one Republican and one Independent, and at least 53 new representatives (as of this writing, several House races remain undecided), including at least 41 new Democratic members. With several House races still in play, the Democrats currently hold 229 seats while the Republicans hold 196. In most of the outstanding races, Republican incumbents or challengers hold the lead, which suggests that the Democratic majority is unlikely to grow in the days and weeks ahead.

Based on press reports, the initial agenda of the new Democratic majority, particularly in the House, is likely to focus on a small number of issues, including raising the federal minimum wage, increasing the deductibility of student loan interest, addressing prescription drug purchases through Medicare, and greater oversight of war and terrorism policies. A broader agenda probably won’t begin to take shape until after the new Congress convenes. New committee chairmen as well as rank-and-file members will clearly play a role in identifying issues and new priorities. The agenda will also be influenced by the president’s priorities, which will most clearly be identified in his State of the Union address in late January and budget proposal in early February.

Political scientists, pundits, and many others will spend the next several months and longer analyzing the factors that influenced the election overall and in individual races. Some factors are obvious, especially concern about how to resolve the conflict in Iraq, while others will only come into focus after careful analysis of the vote and surveys designed to improve our understanding of what motivated and influenced people in key contests. As we look to the future, it is probably worthwhile to keep a few things in mind based on what is known today:

The Democratic majority is slim. The majorities in both chambers are small to say the least. Even in the House, Democrats only have a margin of 11 votes (218 is a majority and they currently hold 229 seats). Holding that majority together is going to be more difficult than it was while the party was in the minority. This will be even more challenging in light of the makeup of the new freshman class (see next item) and the loss of a significant number of moderate Republicans (particularly in the House) with whom Democrats could partner to form a working majority.

New members are generally more conservative. This point directly relates to the first. Looking broadly across the new crop of Democrats, one won’t find many New Dealers. Instead, they are going to see New Democrats (so-called Blue Dogs in “inside the Beltway” parlance). In general, these members tend to be more conservative on social issues, such as gun control and abortion rights, fiscal matters, and national security. Many beat Republican incumbents in districts that, at a minimum, lean Republican or would have remained in Republican hands except for the national tide. These members are likely to defect if the agenda trends too far to the left. Holding the majority together will require a delicate balancing act in both chambers.

Most incumbents got reelected. Although Republican incumbents clearly fared poorly in this election compared to their Democratic counterparts, more than 90 percent of all incumbents were reelected. This fact is important to keep in mind as pundits attempt to assess the size of “the wave” or the “mandate for change.”

There is a narrow window for major initiatives in advance of the presidential election. Although most Americans are suffering from the worst post-election hangover in recent memory and would gladly not hear about the presidential contest for another 18 months, many seasoned political observers agree that the race has already begun and will kick into high gear well before 2007 is over. In general, the onset of the presidential election campaign crimps major policy initiatives as members of Congress wait to see if the election carries clear signals about public sentiment on big-ticket issues. Most of these observers believe that the new majority, perhaps in partnership with the president on certain issues, will have six to nine months in which to advance significant new policies. After that, it will be increasingly challenging to move major initiatives as the focus shifts to the presidential and congressional campaigns.

Over the weeks and months ahead, the agenda of the 110th Congress will come into sharper focus. ASLA government affairs staff will be closely following developments and looking for opportunities to advance the Society’s agenda.

For more information, please contact Scott Kovarovics, manager of federal government affairs, at skovarovics@asla.org.